Hurricane Isaias, the ninth named storm of the Atlantic season, has become the season’s first hurricane and is gaining strength over the Gulf, according to the National Hurricane Center. Sustained winds are near 80 mph, and the storm is moving east-northeast at about 9 mph.

Isaias is expected to turn north today, passing a few hundred miles off the Louisiana and Mississippi coasts. Near-record warm Gulf waters are expected to fuel rapid strengthening before landfall somewhere along the northern Gulf Coast.

Where and when

The NHC’s official track puts landfall between Mississippi and the Florida Panhandle late Friday or early Saturday. Heavy rain and strong wind are expected to push inland through the weekend.

Coastal residents face storm surge flooding, high surf, dangerous rip currents, heavy rain and isolated tornadoes before the storm arrives.

Active alerts

• Hurricane Warning: Ocean Springs, Mississippi, to the Bay/Gulf County line, Florida
• Tropical Storm Warning: Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish line, Louisiana, to west of Ocean Springs, Mississippi, and east of the Bay/Gulf County line to the Aucilla River, Florida
• Storm Surge Warning: Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Steinhatchee River, Florida
• Storm Surge Watch: Steinhatchee River to Yankeetown, Florida

None of the active warnings listed cover the Tampa Bay area. The surge watch reaches as far south as Yankeetown.

What to expect

The NHC expects Isaias to strengthen overnight and possibly hold hurricane strength through landfall, though wind shear could weaken it near the coast. Forecasters caution that the landfall point is only part of the picture. The worst weather in a tropical system usually sits in the right semicircle, so impacts will reach well beyond where the center comes ashore.

A landfall near Mobile, for example, would bring impacts to coastal and inland areas of Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia, including fast-moving tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center has already flagged a severe weather threat for parts of the Southeast on Saturday.

Early indications point to 3 to 5 inches of rain along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle, spreading into central Alabama. After landfall, the remnants are expected to bring flooding rain, strong wind, power outages and isolated tornadoes to Georgia and Tennessee.

The bottom line

The cone of uncertainty shows where the storm’s center could travel, not where its effects will land. Anyone near the cone should treat the forecast as a warning to act, not a reason to wait. The storm’s path could bring long power outages, flooding, and heavy debris. Residents should rely on official NHC and local emergency management guidance, and each household is responsible for being ready.

Follow the St. Pete-Clearwater Sun on Facebook, Google, & X

St. Pete-Clearwater Sun: local St. Pete-Clearwater & Tampa Bay, FL news at PIE-Sun.com