Tropical Depression Nine formed in the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. The tropical system is forecast to become Tropical Storm Isaias, the season’s ninth named storm. If the forecast holds, it could become the season’s first hurricane.
The depression is moving east at about 5 mph. It is expected to turn north on Thursday, staying a few hundred miles off the Louisiana and Mississippi coast. Warm Gulf water is expected to fuel rapid strengthening before landfall somewhere along the Gulf Coast.
Where it could hit
Forecast models still disagree on an exact track. The National Hurricane Center’s official track points to landfall between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle late Friday or early Saturday. Heavy rain and some wind would then push north through Sunday and Monday.
Before landfall, the Gulf Coast faces higher risks of high surf, rip currents, heavy rain, and some severe weather.
Forecasters stress that the cone of uncertainty shows only where the storm’s center could travel, not where its impacts will be felt. Anyone near the cone, even outside it, should be watching closely. Spaghetti plots show whether computer models agree on a path, but they say nothing about intensity, wind, flooding, or storm surge.
What to expect
The Hurricane Center’s forecast calls for Isaias to reach hurricane strength by Wednesday morning and by Thursday. The storm may hold that strength through landfall, but wind shear could weaken it as it nears the coast.
Landfall is not the whole story. The worst weather in a tropical system usually sits in the northeast quadrant. A landfall near New Orleans, for example, would likely bring severe thunderstorms to coastal and inland Mississippi and Alabama. The Storm Prediction Center has already flagged a severe weather threat for parts of the Southeast on Saturday.
After landfall, the remnants are expected to move inland and affect areas as far north as Tennessee. Early estimates call for 3 to 5 inches of rain along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle.
Get ready now
With the track and strength still uncertain, the sensible move is to prepare on your own timeline rather than wait for an official order. Check your supplies, review your plan, and sign up for weather alerts from your local forecasters.
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