Forecasters expect a tropical depression to form in the southwestern Gulf within the next day or so, but where it goes and how strong it gets remain open questions.

Showers and thunderstorms are organizing around a broad area of low pressure, and the system is expected to continue developing as it drifts eastward. By the end of the week, it is forecast to turn north or northeast toward the northern Gulf Coast. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system Wednesday.

Specific impacts can’t be pinned down yet. Residents from the Florida Panhandle to Louisiana are being urged to monitor its progress closely. The outlook does not name the Tampa Bay area yet.

Whether or not the system fully develops, the main threats are high surf, rip currents, and heavy rainfall. Early estimates call for 3 to 5 inches along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the Panhandle, and 1 to 3 inches farther inland across the Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys this weekend. Impacts could begin as early as late Friday or Saturday.

Forecast models have not settled on an exact track, though most point to the same general region. Spaghetti plots, which overlay individual computer model runs on one map, show whether the models agree on a path. They say nothing about intensity, wind, flooding or storm surge, so a tidy cluster of lines is not a forecast of what a storm will do on arrival.

Preparing for a possible storm is ultimately a household decision. Check supplies, review your own plans, and rely on official National Hurricane Center and local emergency management updates rather than social media speculation.

In the Pacific, Hurricane Rachel continues to churn off the Mexican coast and is not expected to affect land. Another area farther south off Mexico is likely to develop this week.

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