Weather forecasters are tracking an area of interest in the tropics that has a 50% chance of developing into a tropical system as it moves toward the Gulf, though much about its future remains unsettled.

The National Hurricane Center puts the odds of development at 50%. Computer forecast models support gradual formation over warm waters, and a low-pressure system is expected to drift slowly into the Gulf by Friday. Models show it moving toward the northern Gulf Coast later in the weekend.

What forecasters don’t know

The unknowns are significant. Meteorologists are unsure how the system will interact with strong wind shear expected along the northern Gulf Coast, which the source report attributes to El Niño. Forecast models disagree on how strong or well organized the system will become.

It is also unclear whether the warm Gulf waters will allow the storm to strengthen or whether the wind shear will tear it apart. Until the models converge, possible outcomes range from a disorganized low that never fully forms to a more defined tropical system.

Bay Area conditions

Closer to home, Monday’s forecast calls for variable clouds and scattered showers, with a high near 88 degrees, according to FOX 13 meteorologist Dave Osterberg.

With a system that is still just a 50-50 proposition, residents have time to review their own plans and supplies rather than react to worst-case headlines. The National Hurricane Center’s official outlooks remain the most reliable source as the forecast develops.

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