Tampa city officials rolled out a slickly produced computer simulation this week designed to convince residents that a $92.7 million public works project will finally solve South Tampa’s chronic flooding problem. Whether it convinces the small business owners who stand to lose their livelihoods during years of construction is another matter entirely.

Tampa Mobility Director Brandon Campbell unveiled the model, built by global engineering contractor AtkinsRealis, showing how the South Howard Flood Relief Project would perform during a five-year, eight-hour storm dumping 5.3 inches of rain. According to the simulation, the project would reduce structural flooding for 96 homes and businesses in the Parkland Estates and Palma Ceia Pines neighborhoods, with floodwaters draining away within seven hours.

That’s the pitch. The price tag is nearly $93 million in public funds for a 6,000-foot box culvert running along Howard Avenue from Bayshore Boulevard to Swann Avenue, then west to a retention pond near HCA Florida South Tampa Hospital.

City officials say the plan emerged after 24 alternatives were studied, and that this route delivers the most flood relief for the least taxpayer cost. Residents who’ve watched their homes flood repeatedly are, understandably, ready for action. Palma Ceia Pines business owner Suzanne Fernandez said flooding has become catastrophic after decades of delay, and resident Maegen Luka — whose home, townhome, and storage unit have all flooded — says the neighborhood is “on borrowed time.”

But the people who actually run businesses along the affected corridor tell a very different story than the one playing out in City Hall’s animation.

Stephen Michelini, general manager of the SoHo Business Alliance, says the current plan amounts to “utter destruction” for properties up and down Howard Avenue, and warns that 60 to 70 percent of businesses in the construction zone may not survive the disruption. His group has floated an alternative — redesigning and reconstructing the existing Zom and AMI ponds to add capacity and reroute water southward — that they say would deliver comparable flood relief without bulldozing the commercial strip that keeps the area’s tax base alive.

That alternative doesn’t appear to have gotten serious traction from the city, which is now asking the Tampa City Council to sign off on the current plan at Thursday’s meeting.

Before the council commits nearly $93 million in public money and greenlights a construction timeline that one business leader says could gut the majority of a commercial corridor, taxpayers deserve a harder look at whether City Hall’s preferred fix is actually the most cost-effective option — or simply the plan that was easiest to animate.

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