The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is closely watching a tropical wave currently over western Africa that is expected to move off the coast in the coming days.

What We Know So Far

• The wave is still over land but is forecast to emerge off the western African coast by around Friday, September 12.
• Once over the Atlantic, it will what meteorologists call the Main Development Region (MDR) — a zone off the West African coast where tropical systems often strengthen if conditions are favorable.
• As of now, the odds of it developing into a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours are very low since it hasn’t yet emerged over the ocean. However, chances increase to around 20–30% over the next five to seven days.

What Could Happen

If the wave organizes sufficiently — with thunderstorms consolidating, winds increasing, and circulation forming — it could develop into a tropical depression, tropical storm, or more. It’s too soon to say whether it will get a name or what path it might take.

What to Watch & Be Prepared For

• Sea surface temperatures, wind shear, and humidity in the MDR will be key in determining if the wave can intensify.
• Models over the next few days will help clarify its projected path and strength.
• Regions in the Atlantic basin should monitor updates, especially over the next week, in case the wave intensifies and unleashes more substantial impacts.

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(Image credit: National Hurricane Center)

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