Preliminary 10-day counts show that schools across the Tampa Bay area are serving fewer students than last year, with drops sharper than some districts anticipated.

While statewide trends—such as lower birth rates, increased homeschooling, and expanded voucher programs—play a role, local factors like housing costs and population shifts are also reshaping school enrollments.

Andrew Spar, president of the Florida Education Association, said public schools are under growing pressure: “A large part of the challenge is this continued attempt to make it harder and harder for public schools to meet the needs of our students.”

The official enrollment numbers won’t be finalized until mid-October, but here’s how districts are looking so far:

Hillsborough
The state’s third-largest district saw enrollment fall by about 8,000 students, from 220,563 last year to 212,207. Traditional public school enrollment alone dropped by more than 7,000. Hillsborough has become a hub for homeschooling in recent years, and past enrollment losses have already led to school closures.

Pinellas
Student counts dropped from 77,854 to 74,203—more than expected. “We’re actually having more of a student loss than we anticipated, which means we’ll have even less money coming into the county,” said Lee Bryant, president of the Pinellas Classroom Teachers Association. The steepest declines were in elementary schools, with kindergarten enrollment down 9.3%. Officials also cite the county’s rising cost of living as a factor.

Pasco
Enrollment dipped by 787 students to about 84,300. Elementary schools lost the most, while high schools gained 459 students and K-8 schools added more than 3,000. Charter schools also grew by about 900 students. District officials say population growth on the east side contrasts with declines in the west.

Hernando
Enrollment stands at 22,567, about 260 fewer students than last year. Elementary grades fell, while high schools grew slightly and middle school remained flat.

Polk
The district dropped 319 students overall, but the story differed between traditional public schools and charters. Public school enrollment slipped by nearly 1,000, while charter schools grew by more than 600.

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(Image credit: Lily Speredelozzi/Tampa Bay Times)

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