Tropical Storm Erin is moving westward across the Atlantic and is expected to strengthen into a hurricane within the next couple of days, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

Forecasters say the storm could pass close enough to affect the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend, though the potential extent of those impacts remains uncertain.

As of the NHC’s 11 a.m. advisory, Erin was about 1,300 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands, moving west at 17 mph with maximum sustained winds near 45 mph. The westward motion is expected to continue into Thursday before shifting west-northwest through the weekend.

Gradual strengthening is forecast starting Wednesday, with Erin likely to reach hurricane strength by late Thursday or early Friday. It could become a major hurricane this weekend as it moves into warmer waters. The storm’s center is expected to pass near or just north of the northern Leeward Islands over the weekend. No watches or warnings are currently in effect.

Meanwhile, a tropical wave in the northwestern Caribbean Sea is producing showers and thunderstorms. The disturbance is expected to move across the Yucatan Peninsula today without significant development, though some strengthening is possible once it reaches the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Thursday. The NHC gives it a 10% chance of formation in the next two days and a 20% chance over the next week.

In the North Atlantic, a non-tropical low, located a few hundred miles off the coast of Nova Scotia, is generating showers and thunderstorms. While brief tropical or subtropical development is possible today near the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, the system will move over cooler waters tonight, ending its chances of development. Formation odds remain at 10% over the next two and seven days.

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