The National Hurricane Center or the NHC is tracking Invest 97L in the southwestern Caribbean Sea, which is likely to become Tropical Storm Rafael this week. Here’s what we currently know:

Current Status

• Location: Southwestern Caribbean Sea
• Condition: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms
• Expected Development: Likely to become a tropical depression in next few days
• Projected Path: Northward through Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Cuba toward Gulf of Mexico

Florida Impact Timeline (Wednesday-Thursday)

• Heavy Rainfall: 2-6 inches expected, higher amounts north of I-4
• Wind: Gusts 35-50 mph possible
• Tornado Risk: Isolated tornadoes possible Wednesday
• Flooding: Medium risk, especially concerning for areas still recovering from Hurricane Milton

Track Projections FOX 35 Orlando Meteorologist Brooks Garner notes the following:

• System likely to stay west of mainland Florida
• Potential track similar to Hurricanes Debby and Helene
• May briefly reach minimal hurricane strength near Cuba/Keys
• Expected to weaken to tropical storm in cooler Gulf waters
• Most likely to affect U.S. Gulf Coast (Panhandle to Louisiana)

Special Concerns “Many homes in these counties were previously flooded by Milton and are still grappling with saturated ground,” Garner warns. “Large tree limbs, already weakened by Milton, could succumb to gusts.”

Secondary System A second disturbance near the southeastern Bahamas

• Low chance of development
• Expected to be absorbed by Invest 97L by Monday
• Will bring heavy rains to northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, and southeastern Bahamas

Forecasters emphasize that while projections are becoming clearer, the system hasn’t officially formed, and exact track and intensity remain uncertain.

How’s that? I’ve reorganized the information into clear sections while maintaining all crucial details about the developing weather situation.

(Image credit: University of Wisconsin Milwaukee)