Colorado State University has revised its 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast for the third time, further reducing the expected number of storms as a strengthening El Niño takes hold.

The university’s latest outlook, released this week, calls for nine named storms, four hurricanes, and one major hurricane this season. That’s down sharply from CSU’s original April forecast of 13 named storms.

Researchers point to a confirmed El Niño pattern and rising vertical wind shear as the driving factors behind the reduced storm count. Wind shear tends to disrupt tropical systems before they can strengthen, which is part of why forecasters expect a quieter-than-usual season.

For comparison, an average Atlantic hurricane season produces about 14 storms. Last year’s 2025 season saw 13 total storms, including five hurricanes and four major hurricanes.

The shift comes after the Climate Prediction Center updated its El Niño forecast in June, showing equatorial Pacific temperatures had already risen more than 0.5°C above normal. NOAA forecasters now say there’s a 63% chance that sea surface temperature anomalies in that region will exceed 2.0°C, a threshold that would classify the event as a “very strong” El Niño.

CSU’s outlook echoes NOAA’s own May forecast, which also predicted a slightly below-average season for 2026.

This year’s storm names, last used in 2020, include one new addition: Leah, which replaces Laura. That name was retired after the 2020 storm caused widespread devastation in Louisiana.

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