Florida homeowners hoping a quieter 2026 hurricane season will bring relief on their property insurance bills may be in for a mixed message: experts say the storm forecast itself won’t move the needle on premiums, but rates are falling anyway.
Colorado State University forecasters last week projected a slightly below-average hurricane season for 2026, though weather experts caution the outlook is always subject to change. Michael Brennan, director of the National Hurricane Center, noted that even a quiet overall season can include dangerous active periods.
Insurance experts say those predictions have little direct bearing on what homeowners pay. Because policies renew at different times throughout the year, a seasonal forecast doesn’t factor into individual premium calculations — though it may encourage insurers to broaden their coverage guidelines.
The better news for Florida policyholders is that the market has already been improving. Jake Holehouse, president of HH Insurance in St. Petersburg, said premiums have dropped anywhere from 10% to 40% over the past two years — a trend he attributes to back-to-back years without major storm damage claims and recent changes to Florida law that helped stabilize the insurance market.
Those legislative reforms have attracted new carriers to the state and prompted existing insurers to loosen underwriting standards that had squeezed many homeowners. Holehouse noted that a 12-year-old shingle roof was difficult to insure just a couple of years ago; now some carriers are accepting roofs up to 25 years old.
Mark Friedlander of the Insurance Information Institute noted that each company uses different underwriting criteria, so rates can vary significantly from one insurer to the next.
Experts advise homeowners who haven’t seen their rates drop in the past two years to contact their insurance agent and ask whether the market has been shopped on their behalf. They also recommend documenting belongings with video and securing flood insurance.
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