A new retail investment forecast from Marcus & Millichap ranks the Tampa-St. Petersburg metro sixth nationally, citing population growth, limited retail construction, and steady consumer spending.

The firm projects the metro will add roughly 10,000 jobs in 2026 — a slower pace than recent years, but still above the national average.

Retail construction in the region remains constrained, with inventory growth forecast at just 0.4 percent in 2026, one of the slowest development periods since before the Great Recession. That tight supply has helped keep storefront demand strong even as some national retailers have faced financial difficulties.

Despite a slight projected rise in vacancy, the retail vacancy rate is expected to end 2026 around 4.1 percent — below the metro’s long-term average — with average asking rents forecast near $23.70 per square foot.

Several other Florida markets also ranked near the top of Marcus & Millichap’s national retail investment index, including Miami-Dade, Fort Lauderdale, West Palm Beach, and Orlando, reflecting broader population and economic growth across the state.

Service-oriented businesses such as fitness studios, medical providers, and experiential retail concepts are expected to be key drivers of leasing activity in the coming year, as these categories tend to be less vulnerable to online competition than traditional merchandise retailers.

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