Pinellas County Public Schools has lost nearly 3,700 students this school year compared to last year, marking a continuation of a decade-long enrollment decline that has district leaders planning school closures and consolidations.

The district’s student enrollment has dropped from approximately 78,000 students last school year to just over 74,000 this year, according to school officials. In January, Superintendent Kevin Hendrick recommended closing two schools, consolidating two others, and expanding grade configurations at other institutions as part of the district’s “Planning for Progress” initiative.

Primary Causes of Declining Enrollment

District officials cite three main demographic factors driving the enrollment decline. The drop in enrollment is partly because the birth rate among school-aged children has decreased, and more families are moving out of the county while fewer are moving in, because the cost of living has increased while their incomes have not.

Enrollment in every grade has dropped this school year compared to last year, with kindergarten down about 9%. The district operates 116 schools and currently has approximately 45,000 more seats than students.

Unlike some other Florida districts, school officials said they haven’t seen a significant impact from families using state vouchers to go to private schools. School board member Eileen Hine stated that the district actually has a net gain of students moving from private and homeschool to public schools, rather than the other way around.

Where Families Are Going Instead

While Pinellas County hasn’t experienced significant losses to private schools, district leaders said more families are turning to charter schools or homeschooling throughout the broader Tampa Bay region and across Florida.

Statewide, the number of children enrolled in home education has increased by 46% since 2020, with 155,532 students being homeschooled in 2024, according to the Florida Department of Education.

According to Pew Research findings from a 2025 study, 83% of parents cited concerns over the school environment, including school safety and drugs, as a reason for opting for homeschooling. Additional factors included parents’ desire to provide moral instruction (75%), emphasize family life (72%), and provide religious instruction (53%).

Charter schools have also seen growth in neighboring counties. In Pasco County, charter schools experienced growth, adding 900 more students this year, while in Polk County, the charter school student population jumped from 20,194 to 20,844.

District Response and Planned Changes

The district believes these shifts in education can save over $7 million in operating expenses. The recommendations include closing Cross Bayou Elementary School and Disston Academy, consolidating Bay Point Elementary and Bay Point Middle School into a single K-8 campus, and expanding Oldsmar Elementary into a K-8 school.

Hendrick acknowledged the emotional impact of school closures on families, calling the process long and difficult, but said he believes the recommendations are necessary.

The district held five community meetings last fall called “Planning for Progress,” with approximately 275 parents attending. District officials compiled written feedback from these meetings into a 33-page document of recommendations.

The school board is scheduled to vote on the proposed changes at a February 24 meeting. The district says no school-based employees will lose their jobs as a result of these changes.

National Context

Dropping enrollment in public schools is something school leaders said districts across the country are dealing with. The district noted that it was once a system of 100,000 students and is now settling in at 65,000-70,000.

One parent noted that uncertainty about school closures is scaring people, and they’re looking for stability and reassurance from the district that their school will remain open and in its current state.

District officials maintain they want to ensure access to high-quality programs regardless of a student’s zip code or where they live, even as they consolidate facilities to match the shrinking student population.

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