Meteorologists are tracking the possibility of gulf-effect snow in parts of Florida late Saturday into Sunday morning, though conditions must align precisely for the rare weather phenomenon to occur.

The setup requires cold air from a weekend cold front to rush over the warmer Gulf of Mexico waters, creating atmospheric instability similar to lake-effect snow seen in northern states. When combined with winds from the northwest at 20 to 30 mph, increased evaporation can cause moist air to rise into colder air aloft. If temperatures are cold enough, this moisture could fall as snow flurries.

However, meteorologists say several factors are limiting the chances of snow actually reaching the ground. The air may be too dry for precipitation to fall, and temperatures will only be marginally cold enough, with the Nature Coast having the best opportunity if snow does develop.

Moisture levels are expected to drop Saturday night along with temperatures, and the upper atmosphere will remain completely dry. By Sunday morning, when temperatures reach their coldest point, available moisture will be even more limited.

Wind direction also presents a challenge. Some forecast models show winds staying from the northwest into early Sunday, which would bring gulf moisture, while others indicate a quick shift to northerly winds that would bring colder but drier conditions.

If Gulf-effect snow does occur, meteorologists say it would likely be isolated flurries early Sunday morning before sunrise, lasting only a short time.

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