Colorado State University has slightly lowered its hurricane season forecast but continues to project a busier-than-normal year for tropical activity.

In its latest update released Wednesday, CSU’s tropical meteorology team now predicts 16 named storms for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. Of those, eight are expected to become hurricanes, with four likely to reach Category 3 strength or higher. That’s a slight decrease from the June outlook, which called for 17 storms and nine hurricanes.

Despite the small reduction, the revised forecast remains above the 30-year average—and close to the 2024 season’s final count of 18 storms, 11 hurricanes, and five major hurricanes.

What’s Changed?
The primary reason for the lowered forecast is stronger-than-usual wind shear across the Caribbean. Since June 1, wind shear has averaged 15 to 20 knots (17–23 mph) above normal in the region, according to lead forecaster Dr. Phil Klotzbach. Wind shear disrupts hurricane formation by tearing apart the thunderstorms that fuel tropical systems.

The Caribbean is typically a key region for storm development, especially for more intense hurricanes. The forecast notes that wind shear will likely remain high through July but could ease heading into the more active months of August and September.

No El Niño This Year
The outlook also confirms that ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to persist through the rest of the season. That means Pacific Ocean temperatures near the equator are running close to average—neither warm enough to signal El Niño nor cool enough for La Niña. Neutral ENSO patterns often favor more hurricane activity in the Atlantic.

Warmer Waters Still a Concern
Driving the above-average forecast is the continued presence of warmer-than-normal ocean temperatures in the eastern and central Atlantic. Warm waters act as fuel for tropical storms and hurricanes, helping them grow and intensify. While sea surface temperatures aren’t as extreme as last year, they remain high enough to support a busy season.

Follow the St. Pete-Clearwater Sun on Facebook, Instagram, Threads, Google, & X

(Image credit: Shutterstock)

PIE-Sun.com: local St. Pete-Clearwater news