No tropical activity is expected in the Atlantic Basin over the next seven days, but meteorologists are monitoring the Gulf of Mexico for a low chance of tropical development between July 16 and July 22.

July is a historically active month for tropical formation in the Gulf and just off the U.S. East Coast, largely due to rapidly warming sea surface temperatures. Currently, Gulf waters are already in the mid-to-upper 80s—warm enough to support tropical development.

Atmospheric Conditions Could Support Disturbance

Forecasters say a minor mid-to-upper level disturbance during the July 16–22 window could help spark unsettled weather at the surface. If an area of low pressure forms, it will have ample heat and moisture to draw from in the Gulf.

However, plumes of Saharan dust continue to move across the Atlantic and could suppress tropical development, depending on their density and timing.

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(Image credit: NOAA)

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