Last month, Clearwater officials were caught off guard when Duke Energy Florida released a report estimating it would cost the city more than $1 billion to cut ties with the utility and establish its own power company — a figure exceeding Clearwater’s entire annual budget.

The estimate came from Concentric Energy Advisors, a consulting firm frequently hired by investor-owned utilities across the country. Clearwater had already commissioned its own feasibility study through a different firm, but Duke’s preemptive release of its own report shifted the narrative.

Concentric’s estimate, based on fair market value calculations and Duke’s accounting records, projected it would cost between $447 million and $695 million just to acquire Duke’s infrastructure within city limits. It’s the kind of high-end valuation the firm has produced elsewhere, often dampening momentum for local efforts to form municipal utilities.

In multiple cities — including San Diego, Decorah, Iowa, and Pueblo, Colorado — Concentric’s estimates have far exceeded those produced by local government-hired consultants. Critics argue these inflated figures confuse voters and favor the interests of the utilities that pay for the studies.

Jim Martin-Schramm, a clean energy advocate in Decorah, said Concentric’s report for his town estimated costs more than seven times higher than local consultants did — $51 million versus $7 million. The resulting confusion among residents contributed to a failed referendum on forming a city-owned utility — by just three votes.

“They produce robust and intimidating asset valuations designed to scare off both officials and voters,” Martin-Schramm said.

In Clearwater, the firm’s involvement is already raising eyebrows. Bill Powers, an engineer who led a campaign in San Diego to replace its corporate utility, called Concentric’s methodology “an embarrassment to the engineering profession.” He argued a more reasonable estimate for acquiring Duke’s local equipment would be around $200 million — less than half the low end of Concentric’s range.

Clearwater’s own study is still underway, conducted by NewGen Strategies and Solutions, a firm often retained by municipalities for such evaluations. City officials expect it to be completed within 90 days, pending further data from Duke.

Ana Gibbs, a spokesperson for Duke Energy, defended the choice of Concentric, citing the firm’s extensive industry experience. “We stand by their conclusions,” she said, adding that Concentric has delivered over 1,000 studies for more than 900 clients.

Concentric’s Florida work isn’t limited to Clearwater. Earlier this year, the firm’s senior vice president recommended in testimony that Florida Power & Light be allowed to earn an 11.9% return on equity — a figure critics slammed as excessive, particularly during a time of rising electricity costs.

Some industry observers say Concentric’s reports are more about protecting utility interests than producing objective estimates. Charlie Spatz of the Energy and Policy Institute said the firm’s work was used to fuel attack ads in Maine, where voters ultimately rejected a proposal to create a nonprofit, state-run electric utility.

“They’re the go-to firm when utilities need a report that favors their side,” Spatz said.

Clearwater’s current 30-year franchise agreement with Duke expires in December, offering a rare chance for the city to consider other options. But with dueling studies — and dramatically different cost projections — the debate over who should power Clearwater is just beginning.

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