The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is well underway, and early forecasts suggest it could be another above-average year for storm activity — much like the hyperactive 2024 season.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its annual outlook the end of May, predicting a 60% chance of an above-normal season, a 30% chance of near-normal activity, and just a 10% chance of a below-average year. The forecast includes 13 to 19 named storms, with six to 10 expected to become hurricanes. Of those, three to five could reach major hurricane strength — Category 3 or higher — with winds of at least 111 mph.

Hurricane season officially began June 1, and as Hurricane Erick strengthens in the Pacific, forecasters continue to emphasize the likelihood of increased activity in the Atlantic Basin.

While there’s no way to say for certain if this year will surpass last year’s intensity, experts see signs that it could be similarly active. Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist at Colorado State University, noted that the 2025 season is shaping up to resemble past active years like 1996, 1999, 2008, and 2017.

The 2024 season produced 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and five major hurricanes — making it one of the most active in recent memory. That year also brought 27 billion-dollar disasters across the U.S., causing more than $182 billion in damage, according to NOAA.

This year, unusually warm waters in the Atlantic, reduced trade winds, and a shift in the West African Monsoon could all contribute to storm formation and intensity. NOAA experts say these factors will help fuel stronger and longer-lasting systems.

“As we witnessed last year with significant inland flooding from hurricanes Helene and Debby, the impacts of hurricanes can reach far beyond coastal communities,” said acting NOAA Administrator Laura Grimm. “NOAA’s early warnings and scientific analysis are vital to saving lives and reducing damage.”

In the Tampa Bay area, local officials are reminding residents to stay informed and make sure their hurricane preparedness plans are up to date as the season unfolds.

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(Image credit: NOAA via AP)

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