Grocery prices in the Tampa Bay area have surged more than in any other metropolitan region in the continental United States over the past year, according to a new study.

Financial advising website SmartAsset analyzed data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and found that grocery costs in the Tampa-St. Petersburg region climbed 4.3% between March 2024 and March 2025.

Honolulu, Hawaii topped the national list with the highest overall increase at 5.3%, but among mainland cities, Tampa Bay led the way.

Carl Gould, president of 7 Stage Advisors, said Tampa’s geography plays a bigger role in pricing than people might expect.

“Hawaii is an island and isolated, so everything has to be shipped in,” Gould said. “But Tampa is also somewhat cut off — in the continental U.S., Florida is the hardest to reach. There’s no rail, no major mass transit infrastructure beyond trucking.”

That reliance on trucking is being strained further by a national truck driver shortage.

“We need to hire 250,000 truckers immediately,” Gould noted.

As a result, non-perishable items like bread and baked goods — typically more affordable to transport — have seen a 5.3% rise in Tampa Bay. During peak produce season, truckers prioritize higher-paying loads of fruits and vegetables, which adds more pressure to prices of shelf-stable goods.

Thanks to local agriculture, produce prices in Tampa Bay rose only 0.2%. However, staples like eggs, meat, and poultry saw a significant jump — up 7.3% over the year.

“Supply chain issues are one part of the problem,” Gould said. “But there’s also a major health issue among chickens, which is cutting down egg supply while demand rises.”

Looking ahead, Gould doesn’t expect grocery prices to ease anytime soon.

“Tariff uncertainty is causing hesitation across the supply chain,” he explained. “Companies are hedging by raising prices, holding back production, and delaying purchases and hiring.”

His advice for consumers? Be strategic.

“Look for coupons, join store loyalty programs, and take advantage of deals whenever possible,” he said.

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