The Colorado State University (CSU) research team has released its initial forecast for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, predicting above-average activity.

While the season is expected to be more active than usual, researchers note it likely won’t match the intensity of 2024.

“The 2025 season is currently showing similarities to past years like 1996, 1999, 2006, 2008, 2011, and 2017,” said Phil Klotzbach, senior research scientist in CSU’s Department of Atmospheric Science and lead author of the report.

Current projections estimate 17 named storms, with nine developing into hurricanes. Of those, four are expected to reach major hurricane status—Category 3, 4, or 5 storms with sustained winds of at least 111 mph.

The forecast is based on various atmospheric and oceanic conditions, historical patterns, and long-range climate models. A key factor in the 2025 outlook is the warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the subtropical eastern Atlantic and the Caribbean.

Warmer waters in these regions typically weaken the subtropical high-pressure system, reducing wind speeds across the tropical Atlantic. This, in turn, can contribute to even higher ocean temperatures, fueling storm development.

Since hurricanes draw energy from warm waters, a hotter Atlantic fosters conditions favorable for storm formation and intensification.

CSU researchers have also estimated landfall probabilities for 2025. The Gulf Coast—from the Florida Panhandle to Brownsville, Texas—has a 33% chance of experiencing a landfalling hurricane. The probability for the entire U.S. coastline is 51%, while the East Coast, including the Florida peninsula, faces a 26% chance.

However, researchers caution that these projections are an early assessment, not a precise prediction.

“The April forecast historically has the lowest accuracy among CSU’s seasonal hurricane outlooks, as significant atmospheric and oceanic shifts can occur before the peak season from August to October,” the report states.

CSU will update its forecast on June 11, July 9, and August 6 as the season progresses. The full initial report can be found here.

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(Image credit: Colorado State University)

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