The Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater metropolitan statistical area (MSA) dropped 19 spots in Zillow’s 2025 hottest market forecast.

A hot real estate market, or buyer’s market, is when buyers have more negotiating power, while a cold market does the opposite.

In 2024, Zillow ranked the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater MSA as the 10th hottest housing market among the 50 most populous U.S. metros.

According to Zillow’s senior economist Orphe Divounguy, the index compared major metro housing markets based on several measurements, including local home value growth, speed of sales, homeownership rates, and job growth. Regions like Tampa, which fell in rankings, are expected to see increases in housing inventory.

“Tampa’s housing market is shifting as the rapid price growth seen in previous years has moderated. In December 2024, the typical home value was 2.5% lower than a year ago,” Divounguy said in an email.

Zillow’s 2025 housing market forecast now places Salt Lake City in Tampa’s previous No. 10 spot.

Some cities maintained their rankings, such as Buffalo at No. 1 and Seattle at No. 32. New Orleans remained at 50. However, Orlando slid from No. 9 to No. 23, and Jacksonville from No. 31 to No. 40. Meanwhile, Miami climbed to No. 15.

Lei Wedge, an associate professor of finance at the University of South Florida, pointed out that the housing market in the greater Tampa Bay region isn’t cooling off much. She noted that a hot market typically involves a growing number of homes sold and high average closing prices.

“In the past year, both home prices and sales have picked up in the Tampa area,” Wedge said.

Data from Hillsborough, Pasco, and Pinellas counties show that the number of homes sold increased from 3,650 to 4,165 between December 2023 and December 2024. The median closing price rose from $382,250 to $385,000, according to MLS data used by real estate professionals.

Wedge attributed the recent upturn in Tampa’s housing market to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts in November and December 2024. She believes buyer numbers could rise again depending on future interest rate decisions in 2025 and their impact on mortgage prices.

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(Image credit: Gabriella Paul/WUSF Public Media)