Tropical Storm Rafael is gaining strength as it moves through the Caribbean Sea, passing near Jamaica this morning and is forecasted to approach the Cayman Islands later on Tuesday. The storm is expected to bring hurricane-force winds, dangerous storm surges, and large, destructive waves to affected areas.

Rafael, the 17th named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, formed in the Caribbean Sea on Monday, Nov. 5. Currently, it has maximum sustained winds of 60 mph and is moving northwest. With low wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures, conditions remain favorable for further development through midweek.

Tropical storm conditions are impacting Jamaica today, expected to continue into the afternoon. Hurricane conditions may begin impacting the Cayman Islands Tuesday night, with western and central Cuba likely seeing landfall on Wednesday, potentially as a Category 1 or 2 hurricane.

By Wednesday, Rafael is forecasted to enter the southern Gulf of Mexico and may pass near the Florida Keys late that day. Although the long-range forecast for Rafael’s track and intensity is uncertain, strong upper-level winds in the Gulf are expected to limit further strengthening as it approaches the Gulf Coast.
(Image credit: National Hurricane Center)