Milton rapidly intensified into a Category 5 hurricane on Monday in the Gulf of Mexico, heading toward Florida. This has prompted evacuation orders, long gas lines, and an increased urgency to clear debris from Hurricane Helene, which affected the same area less than two weeks ago.

A hurricane warning is in place for parts of Mexico’s Yucatan state, expected to be grazed by the storm. Much of Florida’s west coast is under hurricane and storm surge watches, including Lake Okeechobee, known for flooding during intense storms.

Milton, a compact storm, swiftly strengthened and is expected to become a large hurricane over the eastern Gulf. With maximum sustained winds of 160 mph (257 kph), the storm’s center was approximately 130 miles (210 kilometers) west-northwest of Progreso, Mexico, and about 720 miles (1,160 kilometers) southwest of Tampa by midday Monday, moving east-southeast at 9 mph (15 kph).

Milton could make landfall in the Tampa Bay area by Wednesday and might remain a hurricane as it crosses central Florida towards the Atlantic. This path would largely spare other states recently impacted by Helene, which claimed at least 230 lives from Florida to the Appalachian Mountains.

Forecasters have warned of a potential 8 to 12-foot storm surge in Tampa Bay, with flash and river flooding possible from 5 to 10 inches (13 to 25 centimeters) of rain in mainland Florida and the Keys, and up to 15 inches (38 centimeters) in some areas.

The Tampa Bay region is still recovering from Helene’s powerful surge, which caused twelve deaths and severe damage along barrier islands from St. Petersburg to Clearwater.

Why Did Milton Intensify So Quickly?

Milton’s wind speed increased by 92 mph (148 kph) in 24 hours, trailing only Hurricane Wilma in 2005 and Hurricane Felix in 2007 in terms of rapid intensification. One reason for Milton’s rapid strengthening is its small size and “pinhole eye,” similar to Wilma’s, explained Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach.

The storm will likely undergo an eyewall replacement cycle, a natural process that forms a new eye, expands the storm in size, but weakens its wind speeds, Klotzbach added.

The unusually warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico, with an extra-warm eddy, provided ample “fuel” for Milton’s intensification, noted University of Albany hurricane scientist Kristen Corbosiero.

The hurricane center predicts a slight weakening before Milton makes landfall in Florida. The last Category 5 hurricane to hit the mainland U.S. at landfall was Michael in 2018.